By Greg David, THE CITY 

Strong job growth and Wall Street bonuses show momentum but consumers are worried, tourism could weaken and layoffs loom.

New York City is stuck in the middle of two crosscurrents that will determine whether the local economy will continue to grow this year or plunge into a recession.

Big Wall Street bonuses, strength in tourism and a huge increase in jobs last year are in a tug of war with consumers cutting back on spending, Trump administration policies that deter visitors from coming to New York and federal budget cuts that could cost thousands of jobs in the coming months.

And with the mayor’s race underway, the administration of Mayor Eric Adams sees the glass as overflowing — and his opponents as more than half empty.

“The numbers don’t lie: New York City keeps breaking jobs records,” said Jeff Holmes, a spokesman for the city Economic Development Corporation. “With this administration’s focus on pro-family, pro-housing, and pro-business policies, it’s no surprise that there is more economic opportunity than ever. Combine record jobs with new Census data showing that our population grew by 122,000 over the last two years, and it’s clear that New York City is strong and thriving.”

City Comptroller Brad Lander, who is running against Adams for mayor, disagrees.

“Data show signs that businesses and households alike are bracing for the fallout of the new national posture,” he said in an economic report issued last week. “Trump’s trade wars risk worsening the affordability crisis at a time when New Yorkers are already confronting high rents and struggling to keep up with the costs of everyday goods.”

Data released in the last week shows the strength of the economy at the moment. The good news began with huge bonuses paid out by Wall Street this winter.

The payouts, which comprise a large share compensation at securities firms, appear to have jumped 37% this year according to the latest economic report from Lander, which would make the bonuses total more than $45 billion. Wall Street accounts for 27% of state and 7% of city tax revenue, meaning the bonuses are funneling billions of income tax dollars into state and city coffers.

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