By Migration Policy Institute | Editorial Credit: Vic Hinterlang/shutterstock.com

WASHINGTON, DC — In a warming world, where climate change and extreme weather events are predicted to dramatically alter patterns of how, when, and where people move, anticipating the pain points that could undermine public support for smart policy solutions is essential. A new issue brief out today explores what is known about public opinion of climate migrants and the factors that shape these attitudes; it also offers recommendations on how to more effectively create an environment that enables the development of strategies that are in the interest of host communities and the climate displaced alike.

In Public Opinion of Climate Migrants: Understanding What Factors Trigger Anxiety or Support, Migration Policy Institute (MPI) analysts Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan and Lawrence Huang assess polling and experimental data from around the world to understand how climate mobility triggers public solidarity or opposition.

How climate mobility incites support or resistance is neither easy to predict, nor is it static or fixed. Climate migration may trigger anxiety if accompanied by a sense of disorder, unfairness, or loss of control, Banulescu-Bogdan and Huang write. But they also note that communities can rally to support significant numbers of displaced individuals, given the right conditions.

Public opinion surveys and experimental data, while limited in nature, suggest that:

• Climate migrants do not necessarily elicit more support or sympathy than other types of migrants, even as some advocates and others can presume greater acceptance for people who are forced to move due to life-threatening circumstances.
• People displaced by visible, sudden-onset disasters may receive significant solidarity in the short term—but this may not last, in particular if the displacement becomes protracted or permanent.
• It is the unpredictability of future climate mobility—rather than the numbers alone—that is likely to trigger public anxiety.
• Host communities’ own struggles with climate-change impacts may make them less welcoming.

The way leaders discuss climate migration can shape how the public views policy decisions, such as expanding legal pathways for climate-affected people or investing in climate action, the brief notes. Existing narratives around climate migration—including those of urgency and victimhood or those that frame climate migrants as positive contributors—can backfire at times. “Climate migration has become a buzzword in migration policy, and while this opens up space for policy reform, not all migration communications and policy discussions need to be linked to climate change, especially if this is more likely to alienate audiences rather than encourage action,” the authors write.

Beyond being strategic about whether to engage in climate migration narratives at all, the brief offers several other recommendations. Policymakers should:

• Mobilize action by recommending practical steps people can take rather than by assigning blame for climate change and displacement.
• Be realistic about both the costs and benefits that migration brings.
• Help communities prepare for immigration with investments (such as in housing) that benefit disadvantaged members of host communities as well, not just migrants.

“There is space for pragmatic and bold narrative interventions on climate mobility, as long as these messages are communicated strategically and accompanied by practical, on-the-ground initiatives to support both migrants and host communities,” the authors conclude.

The brief is the first of four being published over the next several weeks on issues related to climate change and migration. Forthcoming research in the series, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, will address the links between climate mobility and the green transition, international protection, and development.

The public opinion brief is available at: www.migrationpolicy.org/research/public-opinion-climate-migrants.

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