By Anne Webster | Photo Copyright IQ INC.  

The 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary is shaping up to be a pivotal contest, with former Governor Andrew Cuomo currently leading the polls. However, the dynamics of ranked-choice voting (RCV) introduce complexities that could significantly impact the outcome. 

Polling Landscape: Cuomo’s Lead and Mamdani’s Surge

Recent polling data indicates that Andrew Cuomo holds a lead in the Democratic primary. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey conducted from May 23–26, 2025, shows Cuomo with 35% support among likely Democratic primary voters, followed by State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani at 23%, Comptroller Brad Lander at 11%, and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams at 8% . In a simulated ranked-choice voting scenario, Cuomo surpasses the 50% threshold in the tenth round, securing 54% to Mamdani’s 46%. 

Mamdani’s campaign has gained momentum, particularly among younger voters and progressives. His platform includes policies such as rent freezes, free public transit, and city-owned grocery stores . Despite trailing in first-choice votes, Mamdani benefits from being the second choice of many voters, which is crucial in an RCV system. 

Understanding Ranked-Choice Voting and Its Implications

New York City’s adoption of ranked-choice voting allows voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on the next preference indicated on each ballot. This process continues until a candidate achieves a majority. 

In this system, candidates with strong second-choice support can overcome initial deficits. For instance, Mamdani’s appeal to progressive voters and endorsements from groups like the Working Families Party (WFP) enhance his viability. The WFP has endorsed Mamdani as their top choice, followed by Lander and Adams, and is encouraging voters to follow this ranking while excluding Cuomo . 

Risks of Candidate Collaboration and Strategic Voting

The RCV system also introduces the potential for strategic alliances among candidates. For example, the WFP’s coordinated endorsements aim to consolidate progressive votes and prevent vote splitting. However, such collaboration carries risks. If not managed carefully, it could lead to perceptions of political maneuvering that may alienate some voters. Moreover, candidates must balance their individual campaigns with collective strategies, which can be challenging in a competitive primary. 

Conclusion

As the June 24 primary approaches, the interplay between polling dynamics and the mechanics of ranked-choice voting will be critical. While Cuomo maintains a lead, Mamdani’s growing support and strategic endorsements could reshape the race’s outcome. Voters’ understanding of RCV and their ranking decisions will ultimately determine the Democratic nominee for New York City’s mayoral election.